10-1 RATIO IS TELLING US SOMETHING

This Saturday, April 7, Joe Calzaghe, 42-0 (31), defends his WBO super middleweight title for the 20th time over a span of almost 10 years against reality star/fighter Peter Manfredo Jr., 26-3 (12). The fight will be held at Millennium Stadium in Cardiff, Wales, with attendance expected to be close to 40,000, the largest indoor event ever held in the United Kingdom.

The fight will be broadcast on HBO World Championship Boxing at 5 p.m. ET/ 2 p.m. PT, with a 10 p.m. ET/PT replay.

Calzaghe would tie Bernard Hopkins and Larry Holmes for the fifth longest streak of title defenses with a victory, trailing only heavyweight Joe Louis (25), minimum weight/jr. flyweight Ricardo Lopez (24), light heavyweight Darius Michalczewski (23), and super middleweight Sven Ottke (21). That, Manfredo’s participation in “The Contender,” and the star power of Sugar Ray Leonard acting as Manfredo’s strategic adviser, all provide the dramatic backdrop to sell this apparent mismatch.

The truth is that Calzaghe’s streak has come against mostly second rate opposition. All but three of his 42 outings have been fought in the UK. His signature victory over previously undefeated IBF titlist Jeff Lacy can even be called into question. Many, me included, now believe that the Lacy reputation was built on smoke and mirrors and prudent matchmaking. Among Joe’s victories was a 12 round split decision over Robin Reid, and a list of no-names as long as your arm.

Calzaghe is coming out with a DVD of some of his greatest fights, possibly useful as an alternative to Ambien.

Although technically Stevie Forbes of the Contender second season was once the IBF super featherweight titlist from 2000 to 2002, it has been widely reported that Manfredo is the first Contender alum to fight for a world title. That’s not saying much, given their level of talent.

Actually, all three of Manfredo’s defeats have been to Contender fighters, Alfonso Gomez and Sergio Mora on the reality series, and Mora again in the rematch. Speaking of Mora, as everyone now knows, he could have had his title shot with Middleweight Champion Jermain Taylor but ran like he had robbed a convenience store as the details were being finalized, using the excuse that he didn’t want to fight in Memphis. As for Gomez, he has yet to fight in anything more challenging than an eight rounder, and in the Contender series he was a welterweight facing middleweights.

After Freddie Roach left Manfredo on Justin Fortune’s doorstep to devote himself to training Oscar De La Hoya, somehow Sugar Ray Leonard found his way into the promotion as an adviser to Manfredo. Truly an all time great as a fighter, he was also one of the greatest at self promotion. Now he’s carrying that natural charm to the Manfredo camp.

Leonard has been predicting a huge upset, on a par with his upset of Marvin Hagler 20 years ago this week. He would probably be more on target if he went back 10 years to his last comeback when, at age 40 he was stopped by Hector Camacho in five.

Calzaghe is now 35 to Manfredo’s 26, Peter’s only true advantage. The southpaw Calzaghe is three inches taller, has more experience, and is a fast and accurate counterpuncher. By contrast, Manfredo has fought only twice at 168, and with his meager 12 KO’s in 29 bouts there is little likelihood of any “puncher’s chance” in this one.

I’ll give Manfredo credit for having the heart to accept the fight, but he’s just out of his league with Calzaghe. He’s saying all the right things, following Leonard’s lead, but this is a real reality show and the reality is that he will “shock the world” if he gets past the seventh round.

On the other hand, Calzaghe has to fight someone of substance, and soon. Mikkel Kessler is the natural choice, but even at a “young” 35 Calzaghe is not going to be at the top of his game much longer. He needs Kessler, or perhaps Jermain Taylor to solidify his legacy.

Meaning no disrespect, traditionally the Brits are much better fans than fighters. They have proven their fan support again with the expected sales of the Calzaghe-Manfredo tilt. Meanwhile, in the U.S., we draw 5100 for Israel Vazquez-Raphael Marquez, 8000 for Juan Manuel Marquez -Marco Antonio Barrera and you begin to wonder.

The U.S. is thought of as being the land of milk and honey for international fighters who want to make the big bucks, the land of opportunity for lucrative site deals and PPV events. That’s why Ricky Hatton came here.

Yet while the Brits are packing them in 40,000 strong in Cardiff, Wales, to see their hero Calzaghe whip a delusional TV creation, another fight on April 7 is by comparison being waged in a phone booth. Diego Corrales, now morphed into a welterweight, is fighting Joshua Clottey at the Shrine Mosque in Springfield, Missouri, broadcast on Showtime at 9 p.m. ET/PT.

The historic Shrine, owned by the Shriners, has seating for 4000, so even assuming a sellout, the U.S. fight will draw 10% of the attendance of the fight in Wales. This 10-1 ratio in fan turnout should be an eye opener for every fan of boxing. Big time boxing in the U.S. is fast becoming an endangered species.

Strangely, the one and only fight that could have drawn 40,000 to any venue in the United States is the De La Hoya-Mayweather Jr. fight, and that is being held at the 16,000 seat MGM Grand. Even worse, by the time the fat cats were taken care of, the fight was virtually sold out before it went on sale.

Back to The Big Fight at the Shrine in Springfield, Corrales, 40-4 (33), is moving up two divisions to face Clottey, 30-2 (19), a tough hombre who gave a good account of himself in a 12 round decision loss to the feared Antonio Margarito. On paper, it appears to be far more competitive and entertaining than Calzaghe-Manfredo, minus all the hype.

Corrales needs a victory for a variety of reasons. He hasn’t won a fight since his classic with Jose Luis Castillo in 2005 when he got off the deck twice to stop the Mexican in the 10th round. In his last fight last October, a 12 round decision loss to Joel Casamayor, he failed to make weight, looking hypocritical and losing much of the good will that he had banked when Castillo failed to make weight twice, in a rematch and an aborted third fight.

He then signed with Golden Boy Promotions, only to find that he was still under contract to Gary Shaw. He has since re-signed with Shaw after the rival promoters resolved the matter amicably.

Now, Joe Goossen, his trainer since 2004 who guided him through the high point of his career has been replaced by Dick Wood. There seems to be some dispute over Goossen’s fee from the Casamayor fight. Goossen claims that he received a mere $10,000, not the usual 10% , or $120,000. Corrales says that he had told Goossen of the change to a flat fee and that he had been paid in full. Goossen called that “a complete fabrication.”

Now, almost two years removed since his last victory, being embarrassed on the scale, embarrassed again over his contract, and now charged with being a deadbeat, Corrales needs a win for psychological as well as competitive reasons.

Corrales will have to show that he can bring his power up two divisions to the talented welterweight division. If he can’t it’s going to be a short ride to Palookaville because that big punch was able to bail him out in lower divisions. Corrales can box, but that style isn’t going to cut it at 147. Further, there is the question of how Corrales is going to handle a welterweight punch, particularly since he was dropped more than a few times in lower weight classes.

Diego Corrales has been a warrior, giving us many thrills over his career, but let’s face it, he’s taken too many beatings. He might well be at the end of the road. I see Clottey winning by a late round stoppage.