For a long time I’ve observed Jermain “Bad Intentions” Taylor, 27-1-1 (17), as being more a gifted athlete than a skilled boxer. I believe that he peaked as a fighter when he won the undisputed middleweight title against Bernard Hopkins and then defending it by winning the rematch. Though both fights were controversial decisions, particularly the first, no one else in recent times has been able to push Bernard to the brink as did Jermain.
Somehow, after guiding Taylor to a 25-0 record, two victories over Hopkins, and the undisputed title, trainer Pat Burns was thrown from the train in favor of hired gun Emmanuel Steward, whose record of success speaks for itself.
Then, you know the story — a draw with Winky Wright, an unimpressive win over Kassim Ouma, and a razor thin decision over Cory Spinks had writers questioning Taylor’s talent and motivation. Then came the knockout to Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik, 32-0 (29), and Steward was dumped. Given his history of success, it’s difficult to place the rap for Taylor’s fall on Manny, but apparently the chemistry just wasn’t there, at least for Taylor.
Now if it had been me, I might have considered reuniting with Pat Burns, who seemed to maximize Taylor’s potential. But instead Taylor opted to go with Ozell Nelson, his amateur trainer from the age of 13, and father figure. Since Nelson taught Taylor from his boxing infancy and has remained on board on the Taylor team through the Burns and Steward regimes, I’m going to take a wild guess that if he had more to offer he’s have shown his cards before now.
I don’t believe that the move is in Taylor’s best interests. An informed source once told me that Taylor hates to train and Nelson enables him by letting him do what he wants.
Another concern is the 29 year old Taylor’s statements of a couple of years ago that he wanted to retire by 30. One wonders if he mentally has one foot out the door.
As we all know, Taylor came close to winning the first fight. After dropping Pavlik midway through round two, he blew his opportunity to finish his opponent by chasing a seriously impaired Pavlik around the ring with home run swings and Pavlik escaped the round. With that he basically ran out of gas, a bad omen that early in the fight.
But still, it shows that Jermain is fully capable of taking this rematch if he fights under control and is in top condition. But I would describe it as only a puncher’s chance at this point.
That’s because, on the other hand, when Kelly similarly caught Taylor in round seven, he finished the job with a barrage of accurate punches that rendered Jermain helpless. It should also be noted that not only did Pavlik return from the brink of a knockout with Taylor but he also won a shootout with knockout artist Edison Miranda, (who was favored to win), last May and absorbed that slugger’s best offerings before stopping him in seven.
So Pavlik is far more than just a two fisted boxer-puncher with a great right cross. He might leave himself open for overhand rights, but he has the beard to accept them when they land.
Taylor came out of the 2000 Sydney Olympics with a bronze medal and before you knew it, he was a star in the making and an HBO regular. The cable giant seemed to fall in love with Taylor, whom they surely believed was destined for greatness.
The 25 year old Pavlik, by contrast, was a product of the Midwest, Youngstown, Ohio to be precise. Top Rank brought him along slowly and carefully, giving him time to develop, and no promotional company is better than Top Rank at developing prospects.
But, at the same time, a white guy from Middle America was not deemed to be “TV friendly,” and had a difficult time getting TV dates, let alone an HBO contract. Consequently it seemed as if he came out of nowhere in just over a year.
You have to wonder if, from a technical standpoint, the harder road worked to Kelly’s advantage. Pavlik has maintained the same trainer, Jack Loew, since the very beginning while he toiled in boxing’s minor leagues, working his way up the ladder gradually. For Taylor, with expectations set so high, with too many trainers tinkering with his mechanics, and finding success and money more quickly, his development appears to have been stunted.
Further, while Pavlik’s thirst for recognition was not easily quenched, Taylor was thrown head first into the goldfish bowl.
Pavlik will still be the WBC/WBO middleweight champion regardless of the outcome on Saturday. The rematch clause in their contract called for the fight to be at 166 pounds. Normally, I think of the catch weight bouts as an abomination, and even now I would have preferred 168 to 166. But the weight might be Taylor’s best chance for victory, even if the only thing on the line is pride.
Taylor is obviously moving to 168 regardless of the outcome. Reportedly, Pavlik wants to complete some unfinished business at 160, but at 6’2” he’ll soon be a super middleweight too.
Taylor and his team obviously knew that this was a problem as early as when they signed the contract for the first fight. So there is a possibility that the extra six pounds will give Taylor the strength to cross the finish line this time. He’ll need more in reserve if he opts to keep moving and use the ring, seemingly to his advantage after standing in front of Pavlik last time.
Anyway you cut it, this is a can’t miss fight. Their first battle was a classic, one of the best of 2007. And there is no reason to think that this one will be anything but a barnburner, too.
Regardless of weight and titles, I’m sticking with my prediction of another Pavlik win, this time by a tenth round TKO.
The Kelly Pavlik- Jermain Taylor rematch, to be held at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas is scheduled for 12 rounds and will be shown live on HBO PPV at 9 p.m. ET/ 6 p.m. PT for $49.95.
A decent undercard includes:
Jr. middleweight Ronald Hearns, 17-0 (13) vs. Justin Astorga, 11-1-1 (6), scheduled for eight rounds,
WBC super flyweight titlist Cristian Mijares, 33-3-2 (13), vs. Jose Navarro, 26-3 (12), 12 rounds,
And, WBO super flyweight belt holder Fernando Montiel, 35-2-1 (26), vs. Martin Castillo, 33-2 (17), in a 12 rounder.
Happy Valentine’s Day!