Oscar and Manny: Curiosity, money and an empty 45?

Go ahead, admit it. No matter how much of a purist you are, no matter how much you ridiculed this fight’s announcement, no matter how much you see this spectacle as the eulogy of a decadent era, the fact is you are damn curious to see its first minute.

The first minute of Oscar De La Hoya versus Manny Pacquiao, of course. A fight held at the welterweight limit of 147 pounds. Pacquiao has only fought above 130 once. De La Hoya has not fought under 150 in almost eight years. They will meet at an in-between weight closer to De La Hoya’s side of the scale, in MGM Grand this Saturday.

And for a minute they will provide a spectacle whose novelty is expected to fetch $54.99 from at least 750,000 homes. But after that minute is up and most have a firm grasp on the probable outcome, one large question will remain: Why did Oscar do it? No need for undue suspense: Money.

Welcome to the free market. America’s brand of capitalism has been a net winner for the world. But make no mistake about one inviolable trait: It takes our talents and eventually outpaces them with a desire for money. De La Hoya is no exception. Raised in an era that declared greed is good De La Hoya has made money a large part of his life. In this way – to borrow the title of his autobiography after borrowing its major concession – De La Hoya is an American son.

This time around there’s a good chance De La Hoya’s talents – as a promoter, if not a prizefighter – were outpaced by his desire for money. That is, there are very few virtuous outcomes you can imagine for De La Hoya on Saturday.

Let’s begin with a superfight-beast scenario: After 60 seconds of circling, De La Hoya catches Pacquiao leaping in. He pulls the trigger on his golden left hook and subjects Pacquiao’s jaw to mind-altering force. Pacquiao drops then rises. De La Hoya flurries. Referee Tony Weeks waves the bout off after 91 seconds. De La Hoya as Tyson.

How do you react? With outrage, not plaudits. This fight should never have been made! When Pacquiao had his 1995 minimumweight debut as an unknown in the Philippines, De La Hoya was readying for his third defense of a lightweight title; they were 30 pounds apart then, they are 30 pounds apart now!

Not a good scenario for the Golden Boy.

How about a late stoppage then, say, 10th round, after De La Hoya keeps the much smaller man at the end of his jab for a half hour? You are still outraged. This time, though, you season it with a bit of derision. Welterweight champion Antonio Margarito would have stopped Pacman in 91 seconds. No wonder Oscar wants no part of the Tijuana Tornado!

Then there’s victory-by-decision. That will probably do less for De La Hoya’s future marketability than his May win over Steve Forbes. Last time Oscar decisioned “2 Pounds.” This time he decisioned “1 Pound.”

All other scenarios for De La Hoya, from a draw on down, mark the end of his franchise. Oh sure, there will be a rehab tour. There will be proclamations that no great champion can end his career on a loss. There will be a new trainer brought in or an old one brought back. Some HBO music videos. Then a bout with Ivan Calderon at 140 or a rematch with Fernando Vargas at 210. But by next Cinco de Mayo the gig will be up. Both competitiveness and economics say so.

Ah yes, the economy. I’m not sure what outcome is best for boxing. I’ve heard arguments on both sides and liked them. De La Hoya is boxing’s last superfight draw, the only guy still capable of selling 500,000 pay-per-view buys regardless of opponent. But Pacquiao is the best, most exciting fighter in the world. A De La Hoya victory means the groundhog saw his shadow and boxing has six more months of profitability. A Pacquiao victory means the end of pay-per-view as HBO and Golden Boy Promotions know it.

Unless.

There is one virtuous Golden Boy scenario to consider: Pacquiao hurts De La Hoya early.

Don’t scoff. Not just yet. Give me a chance.

De La Hoya’s greatest weapon is a hybrid left hook/uppercut he calls his “45” – the angle at which the punch is delivered. But Pacquiao’s southpaw stance neutralizes much of its effect. De La Hoya’s 45 is best thrown over an oncoming orthodox fighter’s lowered right hand. That fighter’s chin sits at the end of De La Hoya’s extended left arm. Pacquiao’s chin will be closer and moving forward faster. Pacquiao’s right hand will be higher – for being in the lead.

With his 45 neutralized De La Hoya has to rely on his jab. But Pacquiao’s awfully quick. If he can slip De La Hoya’s jab he can pressure De La Hoya. Then it becomes a battle between Pacquiao’s left cross and De La Hoya’s right. Thirty pounds or otherwise, my money is on Pacquiao’s left.

So let’s imagine Pacquiao catches De La Hoya straight on the beard with a leaping left cross. De La Hoya drops. He rises. Then Pacquiao attacks, the best closer since Alec Baldwin in “Glengarry Glen Ross.” And De La Hoya withstands the onslaught. Now what?

De La Hoya has an opportunity to adjust, survive and outmaneuver both Pacquiao and trainer Freddie Roach – De La Hoya’s one-time trainer. If he can do this then win decisively, he can save his franchise.

How about that? A well-matched fight with ebb and flow and someone hitting the blue mat. Sounds like a recipe for any great fight. Maybe “The Dream Match” isn’t so different after all.

Time for a pick, then? No. I still don’t know who’s going to win. Lucky for me staff picks aren’t due till Friday.

Bart Barry can be reached at bbarry@15rounds.com