There will be no shortage of fireworks Saturday November 14 when two of boxing’s most explosive competitors do battle at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Topping the “Firepower” pay per view, Pound for Pound catalyst Manny Pacquiao takes on the always exciting Miguel Cotto.
The bout will feature not only two of the sport’s most fearless fighters but also two of boxing’s most prominent fan bases. Pacquiao has attained a rock star like status in the Philippines, while Cotto currently stands as the best fighter out of the long time boxing hotbed Puerto Rico.
Manny Pacquiao
General Santos City, Philippines 49-3-2 (37 KO’s)
• Former flyweight, super bantamweight, featherweight, super featherweight, and lightweight and current junior welterweight world champion.
• Currently recognized as the number one pound for pound fighter in boxing.
• Notable wins: Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Juan Manuel Marquez, Erik Morales(twice)
Miguel Cotto
Caguas, Puerto Rico 34-1 (27 KO’s)
• Former WBO light welterweight and WBA welterweight world champion.
• Current WBO welterweight champion
• Notable wins: Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey, Zab Judah, Carlos Quintana
Speed/Athleticism
If Manny Pacquiao defeats Miguel Cotto he’ll most definitely owe it to his handspeed. Pac Man climbed from junior flyweight to welterweight and his hand speed has hasn’t faltered one bit. At no point has his athleticism been more evident than May 2 of this year when he dropped Ricky Hatton with a right hand then slipped under Hatton’s shot all in one fluent motion. If Pacquiao can consistently throw the same left hand he drove through De La Hoya’s defense then Miguel Cotto is going to have a hard time answering to Pac-Man’s speed.
Miguel Cotto is unquestionably athletic, and is by no means slow, but it would be an overstatement to put his speed in the same class as Pacquiao. Cotto’s focus shouldn’t be to match Pacquiao’s speed but to avoid the letting Pac-Man’s best trait outclass him.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Matt’s Take: Pacquiao arguably has the fastest hands in the sport. His blazing speed is one of the main components that guided him to being the top fighter pound for pound. His athleticism is outstanding. Pacquiao moves his feet as well as anybody in the sport.
Cotto is a very athletic fighter and has adequate speed. He has a plodding attack style but unlike many fighters who move forward frequently, Cotto does it rather smoothly. Cotto’s problem however; he is going against a fighter who is far faster than anybody on the planet not named Floyd Mayweather.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Power
If this fight is anything like a Corvette crashing into a brick wall there is no question who the brick wall would be. The thing that is so impressive about Miguel Cotto’s 77% knockout ratio is the competition in which he has been able to preserve that number against. Cotto has dropped 27 men throughout his career and among them are Joshua Clottey, Zab Judah, Carlos Quintana, and Ricardo Torres, all of who have been stopped two times or less and only by top ten level competitions.
Pacquiao can punch, make no mistake, but Miguel Cotto’s chin is not the same as Ricky Hatton’s or a past his prime Oscar De La Hoya. Pacquiao’s best chance at a stoppage will be to wittle away at Cotto, much like he did De La Hoya. Whether or not Cotto’s only loss was tainted we may never know, but he was broken down by an onslaught of power punches from Antonio Margarito through the length of a fight, and that may be Pac-Man’s aim on November 14.
Manny Pacquiao claims the speed advantage by a wide margin but I’m willing to give Cotto the power edge just as drastically. Cotto is a world class puncher, and has dropped fighters with chins that were once thought to be granite. While Manny Pacquiao has the capability to stop anybody that stands across the ring from him, the one shot power to drop a fighter like Cotto just isn’t there. Miguel Cotto should be able to stay on his feet for 36 minutes, while I cannot promise the same thing for Pacquiao.
Advantage: Cotto
Matt’s Take: In terms of one punch knockout power, it’s hard to top Pacquiao after what he did to Ricky Hatton. Pacquiao’s power is like his speed in the sense that it hasn’t suffered with his journey up in weight. While Pacquiao’s power can’t be questioned, we are yet to see the kind of damage he can do to a legitimate welterweight. In his only fight at welter, Pacquiao was unable to drop a severely weight drained De La Hoya, even though he hurt him on many occasions.
Cotto on the other hand has chopped down full fledged welterweights Zab Judah, Alfonso Gomez and Carlos Quintana among others, dropping each of them multiple times in the process. Cotto is also regarded as the best body puncher in the sport, throwing hulatious hooks to the gut of virtually every man to enter the ring with him. I still queeze from seeing the monstrous body punch that he dropped Quintana with.
Pacquiao may have better one punch pop but he is yet to truly prove himself at welterweight, while Cotto’s power has spoken for itself time and time again at this weight.
Advantage: Cotto
Defense/Chin
This is where Pac-Man’s drastic speed advantage will come into play. Pacquiao is fast as lightening not only in his hands but through his whole body. Pacquiao put his elusiveness on display when he slipped through the defenses of Oscar De La Hoya and Ricky Hatton, leaving the former champions completely baffled. If Floyd Mayweather’s shoulder roll remains the most well utilized defensive tool in boxing, Manny Pacquiao’s body and head movement are not far behind.
Miguel Cotto is known as a fighter who takes risks and usually comes out on top as a testament to his raw toughness, but in the two fights since his loss to Margarito I’ve seen a hint of maturity in his defense. Cotto opened his bout with Joshua Clottey with a very tight defense and was still able to knock Clottey down despite his new found sense of caution. Cotto seems to have found a sound pace to his head movement and a stern acknowledgement to his cover, and those elements escalated his defense and made him an overall better fighter as of late.
This is one of the more tightly contested categories in my breakdown. I just can’t see Cotto finding Pacquiao quite as easily as Pacquiao should be able to find him. Cotto isn’t a notably fast fighter and when that factor is mixed with Pacquiao’s phenomenal head movement it should be difficult to land cleanly.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Matt’s Take: Cotto has a better than advertised chin. Sure he’s been rocked and dropped, but who hasn’t? At welterweight, Cotto managed to take some solid shots from Shane Mosley, the biggest puncher in the division, without being in serious danger. Sure Cotto’s only loss came by way of knockout, but many dispute the legitimacy of it. (see Antonio Margarito illegal handwrap scandal).
Defensively, Cotto is adequate. He does a solid job of keeping his hands up but is often susceptible to getting hit, especially as he presses forward.
Pacquiao’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of Freddie Roach. His outstanding movement makes him much harder to hit than the one dimensional fighter he was many years ago. Pacquiao’s chin is amongst the best in the sport. Pacquiao hasn’t been legitimately dropped in quite some time and has always managed to work his way out of danger.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Toughness:
Whether or not Antonio Margarito stopped Miguel Cotto with plastered gloves is a different argument for a different day, but regardless Miguel Cotto showed the world how tough he really is that night. Cotto sucked up power shot after power shot from one of the sport’s most devastating punchers for eleven rounds before eventually faltering. Even without loaded gloves there is no shame in losing a war to Antonio Margarito, and being able to bounce back with two consecutive wins speaks volumes about Miguel Cotto.
Manny Pacquiao has shown himself to be a very tough fighter, but in this case size does make a difference. Physically standing up to Erik Morales is not the same thing as standing up to Antonio Margarito. Pac-Man’s campaign at welterweight has been successful thus far but it remains to be seen how he will respond when he does get into trouble. We know Miguel Cotto can stand toe to toe and trade with the division’s best punchers, but the same can’t be said for Pacquiao. On November 14 these two men will have to get in the ring and fight, not trade pound for pound credentials, and if it turns into an exchange I’ll take the naturally bigger Cotto.
Advantage: Cotto
Matt’s Take: Cotto and Pacquiao each have tremendous heart. Both have bled, worked through distractions and pulled out scintillating victories. However, there is one thing that separates the two in my mind: The kind of punishment (illegal hand wraps or not) Cotto took against Margarito.
In round 11, an exhausted Cotto was dropped and heavily bleeding. Rather than let the referee count him out following a second knockdown, Cotto was ready to continue. Even though his corner stopped the fight seconds later, Cotto’s willingness to fight on after a brutal beating can’t be ignored.
While Pacquiao is incredibly tough, the grit Cotto showed against Margarito was second to none.
Advantage: Cotto
Experience
Where do you begin? Both have engaged in high profile “superfights” both have tasted victory and defeat, and both have had to reach deep down. One fighter constantly faces the pressure of his country’s adoration, but then again so does the other. When you are on the level that these two are, as a fighter and an icon there is no edge in experience.
Advantage: Draw
Matt’s Take: Pacquiao’s monster resume includes Oscar De La Hoya, Erik Morales (three times), Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), Juan Manuel Marquez (twice) and Ricky Hatton. Cotto has battled Zab Judah, Shane Mosley, Joshua Clottey, and Antonio Margarito. Not too shabby right?
The two fighters have outstanding resume stacked with top notch opponents but Pacquiao has dealt with more hostility. Cotto has been the crowd favorite throughout his entire career, while Pacquiao came up the hard way, taking fights on other promoters’ cards as an underdog prior to his days as an A level star. Even if the crowd is pro-Cotto, I expect Pacquiao to be unaffected as was the case in the past.
Advantage: Pacquiao
Verdict
There are so many different ways this fight could go that I’m forced to feed you that lame cliché the real winner will be the fans. If this becomes a physical exchange Cotto should dominate the Pac-Man. If it turns into a tactical chess match Pacquiao’s defense and speed should lift him to victory. The bottom line is that Pacquiao won’t knock out Cotto and Cotto probably won’t outpoint Pacquiao.
I foresee Cotto bringing a reserved approach, and failing to land a defining power shot while Pacquiao racks up points. Cotto won’t be hurt however, and he will put together a few combinations making for a close fight. I think Pacquiao will earn a decision victory, but even if he doesn’t truly earn it, it’s going to be tough for Miguel Cotto to walk away with a victory.
The world wants to see Pacquiao fight Mayweather this spring/summer, Vegas knows it, Golden Boy knows it, and Top Rank knows it, and to throw off an event of that magnitude Miguel Cotto may have to knock Pacquiao out. My prediction isn’t that Pacquiao gets a gift decision; it’s that he earns a unanimous decision, but I’m comfortable picking him by decision no matter how he performs.
Pacquiao UD
Matt’s Take: I have gone back and forth many times on the winner of this bout, which is one of the best that could have been made in the sport. Cotto has the natural size and strength advantage. He will have at least 10 pounds on Pacquiao come fight night however; Pacquiao’s speed and Cotto’s tendency to cut can’t be overlooked.
Expect Pacquiao to use his quick hands and movement to outbox Cotto, who will get hit while attempting to press forward. Enough quick shots from Pacquiao will cut open Cotto, whose night will be ended in the later rounds when the blood continues to flow down his face, forcing the referee to stop a competitive fight.
Pacquiao TKO10
Matt Yanofsky contributed to this story
Photo by Chris Farina of Top Rank