THE LONG HARD ROAD TO MANNY-OSCAR

When September 6 finally rolled around and we were able to enjoy major league boxing once again after a month’s hiatus, I was as happy as Jay Leno after the writer’s strike. It’s the fighters and the fights that make up the game and create interest in the sport. When you write a column that is primarily based on your opinion it helps to have something tangible, such as a fight, to have an opinion about, particularly when you write two articles a week.

But when I look at the HBO fall schedule I really have to scratch my head. According to my calculations HBO has scheduled three World Championship Boxing broadcasts, two Boxing After Dark shows, one of which was Diaz-Katsidis last week, and four HBO PPV’s in the three months before De La Hoya and Pacquiao close out the year on December 6.

Every telecast but one is promoted by or at least includes the involvement of Golden Boy Promotions. They may have had that one too but it was sacrificed to settle pending litigation. So today’s question is — Do they really think we’re that stupid?

Golden Boy admits to getting favored treatment; if only HBO was as forthcoming.

As a major player in the Time-Warner Empire, HBO has a built in advantage in the business of PPV.

In a PPV fight the promoter bears the costs, takes the risks, and reaps the dividends, if any. Promoters get 50% of the revenue from PPV showings, with the cable or satellite provider getting 50% as well. And it just so happens that Time Warner Cable is the second largest cable operator in the country.

After a somewhat rough first half of the year which included blowout mismatches and yawn fests such as Cotto-Gomez, Pavlik-Lockett, Berto-Rodriguez, Klitschko-Thompson, not to mention the De La Hoya-Forbes setup fight, everyone eagerly awaited HBO’s comeback with the Fall lineup. Who would have guessed that we would wind up with a 90 day Golden Boy infomercial?

This week HBO PPV features Juan Manuel Marquez vs. Joel Casamayor for the Ring Magazine lightweight title. Conveniently, Golden Boy represents both fighters so the Ring title won’t stray far.

It’s an intriguing fight but I’m not so sure that at $44.95 this is a pay per view attraction. For one thing when I pay $44.95 plus taxes and surcharges, I’d like to have a high definition picture. It does help that the undercard includes Sergio Mora-Vernon Forrest II for the WBC light middleweight title, a far, far better co-feature than we have seen on PPV in a dog’s age.

While we’re on the subject, I like the 35 year old Marquez by a unanimous decision over the 37 year old Casamayor. Marquez has been one of the best technicians of his time and I still haven’t forgotten Casamayor’s performance against Jose Santa Cruz. I see Forrest, fighting for his boxing career, stopping Mora in the late rounds.

But if you’re a victim of the current economy and don’t want to pony up the $44.95, there are options this week.

In Biloxi, Showtime has 36 year old Nate “The Galaxxy Warrior” Campbell defending his WBA/WBO/IBF lightweight titles against undefeated Joan Guzman who is moving up to his first fight at 135. Apparently the odds makers didn’t think much of Campbell’s mid life resurgence when he trounced Juan Diaz last March because he is a 2-1 underdog.

That’s okay; I’ll pick him anyway to win a unanimous decision. He’s come too far after working too hard to just give the belts away. Guzman is a rabbit and not particularly fan friendly. Nate needs to stay on top of him to win.

The co-feature is WBC super lightweight titlist Timothy Bradley against Edner Cherry. It was to be Bradley’s first title defense but the WBC refused to sanction the bout because those old boys in Mississippi chose to use local judges instead of the judges with the WBC seal of approval.

Yee-hah! Give me Bradley by TKO in the middle rounds.

On September 27 HBO World Championship Boxing returns with Shane Mosley vs. Ricardo Mayorga. Believe it or not, this was originally penciled in as a PPV fight. I think at 37 Mosley can still compete with the best, which Mayorga is not. At best he’s yesterday’s news. Mismatch Alert!

Strangely, young Andre Berto, who actually has a belt, is fighting on the undercard. You don’t need x-ray vision to see through that one. He’s not ready.

On October 18 Bernard Hopkins faces Kelly Pavlik on HBO PPV at a catch weight of 170. I’m against this catch weight business. I mean, what’s the point? I can understand that Pavlik was running out of opponents at 160 and stands to earn a nice purse on a 50-50 split with Hopkins.

But if I’m a fan sitting out there somewhere in the U.S., before I order it I have to think about what is attractive about this fight? What would tempt me to contribute $50 toward the Bernard Hopkins retirement fund? Bernard’s current style of “Who do the voodoo that you do” is terrific for close scores from baffled judges and fans in need of a good night’s sleep.

On November 8, Roy Jones Jr. faces Joe Calzaghe on HBO PPV. This one might actually be an interesting fight, one worth paying for unless you blew your money on Hopkins two weeks ago.

The following week, on the 15th, Jermain Taylor returns to face a finished, worn out Jeff Lacy on HBO WCB. BIG TIME Mismatch Alert!

I liked the description of Ricky Hatton as a 140 pound John Ruiz by Paulie Malignaggi. They meet on HBO WCB on November 22. It might actually turn out to be one of the better fights of the HBO/Golden Boy Fall lineup. It’s just about time to stick a fork in Hatton and Paulie, while not so TV friendly, certainly has the boxing skills to capitalize on the Brit’s fading skills.

Lastly on December 6 we have Manny Pacquiao and Oscar De La Hoya in a fight to decide who can be god. If ever there was a fight established primarily for commercial purposes, this is it. Still, it’ll be so heavily hyped that everyone will think it’s Dempsey-Firpo all over again.

After that the empty suits can rub their hands together, pat each other on the back, and giggle like schoolgirls as they plan another banner year in 2009.

The problem is that sooner or later, likely sooner, they won’t have those big De La Hoya numbers to make their year and bail them out for all of the bad decisions. Then they’ll have to rely on 12 months of good matchmaking, which is obviously not in their wheelhouse.

As a fan you might feel exploited having to pad your cable bill with fights that are no means worthy just because you’re a hardcore fan that loves boxing and doesn’t know how to say no. But even worse is having second rate matchups pawned off on WCB or BAD just because the suits know they can.