BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian (lightweight title bout)
BJ Penn returns to lightweight for his first title defense since becoming the undisputed lightweight champion in May 2008. To become undisputed champ, he dismantled Sean Sherk. Now that Penn’s fight Georges St. Pierre is out of the way, he returns to the weight class that he has a chance to truly dominate. Skill wise, Penn has virtually no weaknesses. His stand-up is flawless. His jiu-jitsu is top notch, and his wrestling is excellent. Florian is also very talented in all areas, but he just isn’t as good as Penn in any of them. Unfortunately for Florian, he could very well be remembered as the best lightweight never to win a title. He’ll have Penn to thank for that. Penn wins the fight of the night by unanimous decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin (205)
Silva against Griffin is a very close fight. Picking against Griffin is a very difficult decision. He has shown up very big in two huge fights – Mauricio Rua and Quinton Jackson. He’s also had trouble with some good stand up fighters – Keith Jardine and Rashad Evans. After a couple of abysmal performances, I expect Silva to put on a precise striking clinic. Griffin will be very tough to finish, but the accumulation of damage will be too much for Griffin. Silva wins knockout of the night with a third round TKO.
Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks (170)
Finally, Amir Sadollah makes his UFC debut. I can’t say that anyone really cares that much anymore though. The ship on Sadollah’s popularity sank after he pulled out of a fight for the third time. Sadollah hasn’t fought in over a year, and he’s coming back against a highly skilled wrestler like Hendricks. That will not be easy. In fact, it will be impossible. Sadollah’s only chance will be to pull off a fluke submission, but Hendricks is too good for that. Even better is that we’ll be spared another one of Sadollah’s boring, self-deprciating post-fight interviews. Hopefully, Hendricks’ will get to host Inside the Octagon now. Hendricks wins by unanimous decision.
Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida (185)
Kendall Grove has had a series of ups and downs in his career. After defeating Evan Tanner and Jason Day in successive fights, Grove is definitely on an upswing. However, in fighting Almeida, Grove takes on someone with a similar fighting style to his, but Almeida is better at it. Almeida’s jiu-jitsu skills are among the best in the UFC. In his career, Almeida has had trouble with guys that could out-power him, but Grove isn’t one of those guys. Almeida wins by second round submission.
Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino (155)
Two gatekeepers square off in the PPV’s opening broadcast. They’re expected to put on an exciting fight, and they likely will. Pellegrino has an outstanding ground game, and he has won his last two fights. Neer is also a relentless ground fighter who has won four of his last five fights. The fight will go into the later grounds where Neer’s toughness will wear on Pellegrino. In a close fight, Neer wins by unanimous decision.
Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley (155)
Nelson vs. Riley is a fast rematch from Nelson’s controversial victory in March. The fight ended after a flash knockdown in under a minute. Both fighters immediately requested a rematch. Was anything learned from the first fight? No. Because if anything was learned, it would have been that Nelson should not accept a rematch. Riley is stronger, a better striker, and a better wrestler. Nelson reverses his fortunes and gets the win by first round knockout.
Tamdan McCrory vs. John Howard (170)
Howard is a solid lower-tier UFC fighter, but it’s a tier he’ll never get off of. On the other hand, McCrory, at 23, has a ton of potential. The fight is a set up for McCrory to get the win and look good in doing so. He’ll do that, and he’ll do that easily. McCrory wins submission of the night with a second round victory.
Thales Leites vs. Alessio Sakara (185)
Oh boy, Thales Leites makes his return, and he does so in the “city of brotherly love”. However, Leites should not expect much love in Philadelphia. Every fan still remembers what may have been the most dreadful fight in the history of the UFC when he took on Anderson Silva a few months ago. The problem with Silva vs. Leites was that it was jiu-jitsu fmaster vs. a striker. Well, so is this fight – even if it is jiu-jitsu vs. very bad striker. Since Sakara has nowhere near the skill level of Silva, Leites (hopefully) won’t be afraid to go for a legitimate takedown instead of flopping to his back like a dead fish. Leites’ skill level is just too much for Sakara. The loss will likely spell the end of Sakara’s UFC tenure. Leites wins by first round submission.
Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer (170)
By winning their UFC debuts, both fighters have exceeded my expectations of their UFC careers. Coming out of season seven of TUF, the fighters did not appear to have the talent to succeed in the UFC, but both fighters looked good during the start of their careers. Cramer defeated Matt Arroyo while Riddle defeated both Steve Bruno and Dante Rivera. Riddle has underrated power and has really progressed since leaving the show. While Cramer has improved as well, he does not have the skillset to match Riddle yet. Riddle wins a decent fight by unanimous decision.
Jesse Lennox vs. Danillo Villefort (170)
Lennox and Villefort both come over to the UFC after winning their WEC debuts. Both fighters have good all around skills, but Villefort has fought a slightly higher level ofcompetition. One of his wins was a first round submission win over UFC vet Mike Massenzio. This should be a very close fight, but I give Villefort the slight edge due to his training camp. American Top Team has been a roll, and I expect Villefort to be fully prepared for the fight. Villefort wins by unanimous decision.