Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort (195)
Even though no title is at stake, the main event of Belfort vs. Franklin is a very important fight. With a victory, Belfort could find himself at the top of the list for the next middleweight title shot (if Dan Henderson goes to 205 and Nate Marquardt doesn’t get the chance). If Franklin wins, he could be in the middle of a suddenly depleted light heavyweight division. Once the bell rings, the fight will be an exciting, stand-up war. Belfort has more power, but Franklin has more skill. On his recent five-fight winning streak, Belfort has not been tested. He will be tested against Franklin. He won’t pass. Franklin wins fight of the night by unanimous decision.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Junior Dos Santos (265)
Hopefully, everyone has leapt off of the Mirko Cro Cop bandwagon. In fact, there shouldn’t even be a vehicle anymore. He isn’t the same devastating fighter he once was in Pride FC. People can draw their own conclusions as to why, but I am simply measuring his UFC performances. Cro Cop defeated two stiffs in Eddie Sanchez and Mustapha al Turk and lost to two legit UFC fighters in Cheick Kongo and Gabriel Gonzaga. All Dos Santos has done is wipe out Fabricio Werdum and Stefan Struve in under three minutes combined. The fight will be fought on the feet, but Cro Cop won’t end up there. Dos Santos wins knockout of the night with a second round KO.
Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley (170)
Paul Daley is not a good match-up for Kampmann. Kampmann is a good, technical striker who also has an advanced submission game. Where Kampmann has trouble is against a slugger that will use brute force against him. That is what Daley will try to do from the onset. However, Daley has trouble with good submission fighters that can hang in with his power. In his second fight coming down from middleweight, Kampmann will have another test to see if he is a top contender. What Kampmann needs to do is survive the first two rounds. If he does, he will be successful. He will. Kampmann wins by third round submission.
Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg (170)
In his return to the UFC, Frank Trigg does not have an easy draw. Taking on Koscheck, who is the number two villain in the UFC (behind Mr. Lesnar), will not be an easy task. Koscheck is a better wrestler, and his ultra-improved standup game is better as well. On top of that, Koscheck is younger, and in coming off the upset loss to Paulo Thiago, he is more desperate. All of this does not add up well for Trigg. Trigg will be difficult to put away, but that’ll be his only accomplishment. Koscheck wins by unanimous decision.
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca (155)
If ever a fight was guaranteed to go the distance, this is the one. Franca hasn’t been stopped in over four years, and Griffin, well, has never been stopped. We should expect a lot of action in the fight by way of Franca submission attempts and Griffin escapes. Eventually, Franca will get frustrated, and the fight will get back to the feet. That’s where Griffin will have the technical advantage. Griffin wins by unanimous decision.
Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller (155)
Escudero, the undefeated Ultimate Fighter season eight winner, finally returns to the octagon since winning the show last December. His first fight is not an easy one. He’s taking on the jiu-jitsu specialist Cole Miller. Escudero is a talented wrestler but going to the ground is not a good plan against Miller. The way to defeat Miller is by overpowering him, but I don’t think Escudero can accomplish that. Therefore, Escudero will be forced to keep this fight on the feet, and Miller’s reach will be too much. Eventually, the fight goes to the mat and Escudero doesn’t get up. Miller wins submission of the night with a second round tapout.
Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal (185)
The opening TV fight on Spike’s broadcast is guaranteed to be a slugfest. Both fighters are strikers and that’s all. McFedries has had a lot of trouble with submissions once the fight goes to the ground (see: Thales Leites, Mike Massenzio and Martin Kampmann), but he won’t have to worry about that in this match. Drwal will be looking for the knockout for as long as the fight goes. Don’t worry Tomasz. It won’t be long. The only question is can Spike sneak a third fight onto the telecast? McFedries wins by first round KO.
Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez (155)
Not sure why Miller is matched with the debuting Lopez. He should be facing a higher level of opposition coming off the impressive victory against Mac Danzig at UFC 100. Miller is one of the best jiu-jitsu fighters in the division. On the other hand, Lopez is known more for his stand-up ability, but it won’t matter. Miller wins first round submission.
Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz (155)
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts. Oliveira has fought better competition although I have to point out that two of his wins came against a fighter named “Wigman Big Big”. Hmm. Lentz does have a prior win over former UFC fighter Drew Fickett, and he has shown solid submissions in his career. Like Lentz, Oliveira has shown a good submission background as well. Since both fighters are evenly matched, the fight will likely go to decision and not make television. Lentz wins a close fight by unanimous decision.
Rick Story vs. Brian Foster (170)
Foster gets his first shot at UFC level competition in his UFC debut. That could be difficult for him. I believe it’s better for someone to work their way up through fighters close to UFC level before making the leap. Foster has demonstrated good power so far in his career. His opponent, Story, has fought much better competition, and he some wins to show for it. Both guys are good all-around. To me, that means this will be an all-around decision. I’m leaning towards Story because of the experience edge. Story wins by unanimous decision.
Eliot Marshall vs. Jason Brilz (205)
This is a pretty even match-up. Marshall showed flashes while on the Ultimate Fighter, but he hasn’t fought anyone besides the show’s participants in the UFC. He has excellent submissions and is a hard fighter to stop. On the other hand, Jason Brilz is a powerful fighter who is undefeated in the UFC at 2-0. That includes a decision victory over Tim Boetsch. I’m not sure how Marshall can defeat a more powerful fighter like Brilz. Well, he won’t. Brilz wins by unanimous decision.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac (205)
As a training partner of Mirko Cro Cop, Igor Pokrajac sneaks into the off-television part of the pay-per-view. He’s shown a good all-around game albeit on very small shows. His opponent is the returning Matyushenko. Matyushenko is a vastly experienced fighter that is very good on the mat, and he also has solid submissions. This won’t take long. Matyushenko wins by first round TKO.
Rob Emerson vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (155)
Rob Emerson has quietly become a solid fighter in the lightweight division. He’s 2-1 (1 no contest) since leaving the show. He demonstrated substantial power with the one punch knockout over Manny Gamburyan. Unfortunately, Emerson is going up against the highly skilled Rafael Dos Anjos. Dos Anjos has a myriad of submissions and is a hard guy to stop. Good thing he won’t have to worry about that. Dos Anjos wins by first round submission.