UFC light heavyweight title bout: Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto Machida
Is Lyota Machida the most unbeatable light heavyweight fighter in the world? No. He’s not. Rashad Evans is. Much has been made about how difficult Machida’s style is to figure out, but Evans has been just as unstoppable since he perfected his striking game a few years back. Evans dominated both Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin in successive fights. He also trains at one of the best camps in the world – led by Greg Jackson. Nevertheless, Machida is supremely talented and very awkward to prepare for, but I wonder how he’ll do against a fighter that is so much faster than him and a much better wrestler. Also adding to Evans’ chances is that Evans is more of counter-puncher, which means he’ll be less likely to make a strategic mistake. I don’t see the fight ending quickly, but once Evans figures out Machida, I expect him to finish the fight. Rashad Evans retains the title by fourth round KO.
Matt Hughes vs. Matt Serra (170)
The ultimate grudge match is here. A lot of times the hatred is manufactured in a fight, but this time it is real. Will that play into the fight? It possibly could. Should both fighters decide to stand and trade, they will be going away from their strengths in order to settle the grudge. More than likely though, the veteran fighters will be smart, and that means we’re looking at a ground battle. Hughes will go for the takedown, and Serra will look for the submission. I don’t see any way that Hughes or Serra taps in the fight so that will play into Hughes’ favor. In a close fight, Hughes wins by unanimous decision.
Drew McFedries vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (185)
Foupa-Pokam steps in for the injured James Irvin on short notice to face McFedries. Irvin and McFedries were likely to have a one round brawl and substituting in Foupa-Pokam does nothing to change that. The match-up is sure to have fireworks in it from start to finish. Unfortunately for Foupa-Pokam, McFedries is the better striker, but Foupa-Pokam does have decent submissions. If Foupa-Pokam gets the fight to the ground, he will win. I’m don’t believe he’ll be able to do that. McFedries wins by first round KO.
Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen (185)
Dan Miller is top prospect in the UFC who has looked very strong in going undefeated through three UFC fights. Sonnen has basically been reduced to “gatekeeper” status since losing to Demian Maia in his last fight. Still, this is a very difficult fight for Miller. Sonnen is a tough, hard-nosed fighter with great wrestling skills. Miller is also very talented on the ground, and he showed that very clearly when he submitted Jake Rosholt with a guillotine choke from the half-guard. Miller has a lot of long term potential, but Sonnen is too much too soon. Sonnen wins by unanimous decision.
Sean Sherk vs. Frank Edgar (155)
This fight is guaranteed to go with the full 15 minutes and is also guaranteed to be pretty entertaining. It’s another fight from the UFC’s “wheel of lightweights random match generator”. Basically, the promotion mixes and matches wrestlers like Sherk, Edgar, Tyson Griffin, and Clay Guida to ensure a good fight. However, it also ensures a fight won’t have a decisive finish. Sherk vs. Edgar definitely fits into that mold. However, in the end, Sherk’s size will be too much for Edgar. Edgar would do much better at featherweight. An Edgar vs. Uriah Faber fight would be awesome. After Edgar loses to Sherk, Edgar vs. Faber has a real chance to be made. Sherk wins by unanimous decision.
Brock Larson vs. Chris Wilson (170)
For Larson, this will be his second fight since combing back to the UFC. He has great submissions and has only lost two times in 27 fights (Carlos Condit and Jon Fitch). The fight will be very important to both guy’s careers. The winner will likely move into the Top 15, and the loser could very well be one more loss from a UFC exit. The fight will be a close battle fought mainly on the ground. That being the case, Larson will have the slight advantage. Larson wins by unanimous decision.
Pat Barry vs. Tim Hague (265)
Talk about a heavyweight slugfest. This may not be on the broadcast initially, but we should all hope for a quick fight or two from the main card. That would mean Barry vs. Hague gets added. Both fighters are sluggers. Combined, nine of their 13 wins have come by knockout – including all four of Barry’s victories. Neither fighter usually goes very deep in their fights so this one should be over in a hurry. Whoever connects with the first haymaker wins. Based on size and experience, Hague has the best chance to do so. Hague wins by first round KO.
Phillipe Nover vs. Kyle Bradley (155)
Taking his first fight since losing to Efrain Escudero in the Ultimate Fighter finale, Nover gets a relatively easy fight against Kyle Bradley. Bradley hasn’t made it out of the second round in either of his two UFC fights (losses to Joe Lauzon and Chris Lytle), and he has not looked good in either match-up. He does have some knockout power, but he’ll have a difficult time showing it against Nover. Nover has good all around skills despite the upset loss to Escudero. Nover is a good striker and should be able to finish the fight. Nover wins by second round TKO.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Andre Gusmao (205)
When Houston Alexander bailed out due to an injury, Soszynski quickly jumped in to take his spot. Soszynski is only one month removed from quickly dispatching Brian Stann with a kimura submission. On the other hand, the IFL veteran Gusmao has been off for about nine months since losing by unanimous decision to UFC hot prospect Jon Jones. This could be a pretty good fight, but in the end, Soszynski’s experience (26 fights to six) will likely win out. Plus, Soszynski will go for the kimura about 100 times in the fight before finally getting it. Soszynski wins by third round submission.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Brandon Wolff (170)
Despite being the victim of a highlight reel knockout to Josh Koscheck, Yoshiyuki Yoshida is still a very capable fighter. He has very good technical skills and good knockout ability. Hopefully for Yoshida, he’ll be able to mentally recover from the beating he took. That will be the only way for Yoshida to lose – if he’s already defeated mentally. Wolff does not have too much to offer in return. He’s had a few wins at lower level shows, but when he stepped up to the UFC, Ben Saunders completely took him apart. Yoshida will do the same. Yoshida wins by second round TKO.
Dave Kaplan vs. George Roop (155)
Kaplan doesn’t belong in the UFC, and he successfully proved it in his last fight, which was a submission loss to the underwhelming Junie Browning. The only reason he is getting a second UFC fight is because he and Browning inexplicitly won fight of the night. George Roop is certainly no world-beater either, but there’s no way not to like his chances here. Roop wins by first round TKO.