ULTIMATE FIGHT NIGHT 18 PREDICTIONS

Carlos Condit vs. Martin Kampmann (170)
By placing Condit in the main event in his debut, the UFC clearly believes Condit has a ton of potential. He was undefeated (5-0) in the WEC, and he generally delivers exciting fights. Condit has great submissions and underrated power. He also has a tremendous heart and is very difficult to stop. On the other hand, Kampmann is a very dangerous opponent. He is an experienced kickboxer and is also well versed at submissions. Kampmann has never gone past the second round – in his entire career (sixteen fights). He also boasts a 5-1 UFC record. But it his lack of going past the second round that will hurt him against Condit. A win here for Condit really legitimizes his WEC title reign as well as his standing as a top ten welterweight. In a good fight, Condit wins by third round submission.

Ryan Bader vs. Carmelo Marrero (205)

The UFC is not doing Bader any favors by matching him with Marrero as his first non Ultimate -Fighter opponent. Marrero is a good stand-up fighter with a notable victory over Cheick Kongo. However, Marrero’s biggest weakness is his ground skills. That is definitely where the former collegiate wrestler, Bader, will look to bring this fight. In what will turn about to be a very boring match-up, Bader grinds out a unanimous decision victory.

Tyson Griffin vs. Rafael Dos Anjos (155)

Thankfully, this fight was put onto the main show. The match-up has the potential to be fight of the night. Griffin always puts on a great show, and Dos Anjos looked fantastic before being caught by a devastating uppercut against Jeremy Stephens. The fight will likely go the distance, but there will be plenty of close calls on both sides. In the end, Griffin’s wrestling will be too much for Dos Anjos. Griffin wins by unanimous decision.

Junie Browning vs. Cole Miller (155)

We all saw what we saw on The Ultimate Fighter with Browning so there’s no point rehashing. Upon leaving the show, Browning’s done the right thing and that’s move to Las Vegas to train at Xtreme Couture. He looked much improved in his win against David Kaplan, but I don’t think Kaplan has any place near a UFC cage. His opponent, Miller, is a talented fighter that is very good at submissions. He has a 3-1 UFC record, and Miller will likely improve to 4-1. Miller is much better than Browning at this point in their careers. Browning’s peak is likely a few years down the road. Miller wins by second round submission.

Gleison Tibau vs. Jeremy Stephens (155)

As a lightweight, Stephens fights like a heavyweight. He’s always looking to connect with the big knockout punch. That has made him a very one-dimensional fighter albeit an exciting one. Tibau is the exact opposite. He’s looking to grind out a win and try for a few submissions along the way. Tibau’s style will frustrate Stephens. Unless Stephens connects with one of his wild punches, he’s destined for a loss here. Tibau wins the fight by unanimous decision.

Ricardo Almeida vs. Matt Horwich (185)

Almeida against Horwich should not take very long. Even though Almeida lost to Patrick Cote, he’s much better than Horwich. Outside of his surprising KO win against Benji Radach, Horwich has won most of his fights by either decision or submission. That’s the wrong route against Almeida. Even though Almeida also has won a lot of his fights by decision, he’s much more skilled on the ground than Horwich. I’m not sure how Horwich makes it out of the first round. Almeida wins by first round submission.

Brock Larson vs. Jesse Sanders (170)

After signing a contract to receive a WEC welterweight title shot against Condit, Larson saw the opportunity go away due to injury. Then, the WEC disbanded the division. However, the good news for Larson is that Zuffa quickly transferred his contract over to the UFC, and his first fight should be an easy one. Sanders has been a very busy fighter as he’s had 24 fights in a little over three years. He’s won 20 of those fights, but they were against mostly lower tier competition. This is a big step up for Sanders – one that he’s not ready for. Larson wins the fight by first round submission.

Tim Credeur vs. Nick Catone (185)

Downey is stepping back into the cage less than two months after his last fight (a submission victory over Derek Downey). Fortunately for Catone, he is taking on Credeur. Credeur won a very uninspiring fight over Nate Loughran, but he showed little in the fight as Loughran looked like he wanted out as soon as possible. Catone is undefeated and will stay that way. Catone wins by first round TKO.

Jorge Rivera vs. Nissen Osterneck (185)

Osterneck is one of the top prospects in the middleweight division. His last fight was a spirited loss to another top prospect, Jake Rosholt, in the WEC. Osterneck has good submissions and underrated power. He will certainly get a good test of exactly where he is when he takes on Rivera. Rivera has been up and down in his career. He wins some of the fights he’s supposed to lose (Kendall Grove and Dennis Hallman) and then loses some of the fights he’s supposed to win (Terry Martin and Chris Leben). One thing is guaranteed in every Rivera fight, and that is Rivera will come out swinging. He’s got good power and is always looking for the knockout. He won’t get one here though. Osterneck continues his ascension up the UFC ranks with a second round submission.

Rob Kimmons vs. Joe Vedepo (185)

I still love the highlight of the ring announcer accidentally reading Kimmons’ name after Marvin Eastman dominated him for 25 minutes on a smaller show. If you haven’t seen, it is definitely worth looking up. Nevertheless, Kimmons is a below average UFC fighter at best. He’s had some decent submission victories on a smaller scale but true notable wins. For Vedepo, he’s been fighting for three years but doesn’t boast any significant wins either. Can both of these guys lose? Probably not – so I’ll take Kimmons’ experience as the tiebreaker. Kimmons wins the fight by third round submission.

Tim McKenzie vs. Aaron Simpson (185)

McKenzie against Simpson is a battle of former WEC fighters making their debuts in the UFC. McKenzie is a journeyman with a decent all around game but nothing that overly stands out as excellent. On the other hand, Simpson has a chance to become very good fighter. He’s undefeated in four fights – all ending in knockout. Only one fighter even made the third round. The fight is set to make sure Simpson looks good. He will. Simpson stays undefeated with the first round TKO.

Steve Steinbeiss vs. Ryan Jensen (185)

Steinbeiss is likely in the UFC due to his association with Condit, Bader and CB Dalloway as they all train at Arizona Combat Sports. Besides that, there is not too much to Steinbeiss’s credentials. He’s a decent stand-up fighter who is tough to finish. Jensen’s had a bunch of big fights (Thales Leites, Demian Maia, Joey Villasenor, and Wilson Gouveia), but they’ve all ended in losses. Still, Jensen should have enough to get by the unproven Steinbeiss. Jensen wins by second round TKO.