Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard (155)
Guillard is the brash, trash-talking, talented striker, and Diaz is the brash, trash-talking jiu-jitsu stud. The two fighters are polar opposites in the octagon, but they are very similar outside of it. They are also both street-tough fighters that will go for the finish. Once the bell rings, Guillard is going to go for the knockout. He’ll throw as many haymakers as he can (until tiring), but I don’t think he’ll have the ability to KO Diaz. On the other hand, over the course of three rounds, the fight will eventually go the mat, and I don’t see Guillard being able to get up from there. Diaz is too skilled on the ground. The best part is that we’ll get hear a Diaz post-fight interview. Diaz wins the fight of the night by third round submission.
Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta (155)
In my opinion, the big question coming into the fight is can Roger Huerta finish Gray Maynard? That’s possibly the only way Huerta can win. Against Maynard’s smothering style, Huerta will not be able to get a decision. But what could play into Huerta’s favor is that Maynard has shown that he can be one of those wrestlers that prefer to stand and bang rather than use their ground skills (see: Sean Sherk). Getting into a striking match would definitely favor Huerta. Huerta is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division, and Huerta was also able to submit the seemingly impossible-to-stop Clay Guida. This will likely be Huerta’s last fight in the UFC before venturing to Hollywood, and he’ll pull off the win on his way out. Huerta gets the victory by third round TKO.
Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger (170)
Ellenberger steps in as the late replacement for Chris Lytle. Lytle vs. Condit, on paper at least, would have been a much better fight. Ellenberger has had 25 fights, but he hasn’t had any marquee wins. His step-up fights against Jay Hieron and Delson Heleno both ended in losses. Nevertheless, Ellenberger has a good striking game, and he’ll need it against the highly skilled Condit. Condit is coming off a loss to Martin Kampmann, and he needs an impressive showing against the UFC newcomer. The all-around talented Condit will get that. Condit wins by second round submission.
Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur (185)
This fight isn’t fair. I’m not sure how Credeur prepares for a fighter that is bigger, stronger, and more skilled than he is. Nate Quarry wins knockout of the night with a first round KO.
Steve Cantwell vs. Brian Stann (205)
After a prior delay, the third fight between the two former WEC stars is set to take place. Stann has one skill – striking. He’s very good at it, but he’ll be no match for the up and coming Cantwell. They split their first two fights with each recording a knockout. In the second encounter, Cantwell thoroughly dismantled Stann en route to the victory. Having a military background, Cantwell is a great story for the media. But unfortunately for Stann, Cantwell is not going to be cannon fodder. His tough unanimous decision loss to the tremendously skilled Luiz Cane showed that Cantwell is not only a future contender but also a future champion. Cantwell has an incredible all-around MMA game. The only weakness he has is experience. If the UFC allows him to grow, they have a future main event fighter on their hands. Cantwell dominates Stann for the second round TKO.
Chris Wilson vs. Mike Pyle (170)
Pyle’s last fight was a short-notice loss to Brock Larson. That shouldn’t be held against him, as the Xtreme Couture product is a UFC caliber fighter. He has one of the most polished submission games in the division. His opponent, Chris Wilson, has had a challenging road to get to the fight. He had to pull out of the UFC 98 fight with Brock Larson due to personal issues that included an armed robbery in Brazil. Is he fully recovered and ready to fight again? Pyle is the type of fighter that will push Wilson as hard as possible to find out, and Pyle will use his advanced submission skills to attempt submission after submission. Eventually, he’ll get one. Pyle wins a good fight by third round submission.
C.B. Dollaway vs. Jay Silva (185)
Even though he suffered a very unexpected loss to Tom Lawlor, C.B. Dollaway is a skilled fighter that the UFC is still high on. He’ll continue to be around because he does have the talent to be a top-tier fighter down the road. I don’t see middleweight as the right weight class for him though. With his advanced wrestling skills, Dollaway would be better off at welterweight where he won’t be giving up so much strength to his opponents. In this fight, Dollaway will be taking on the UFC debuting Jay Silva (yes, another Silva). Silva is a pure knockout artist with the power advantage, and Dollaway will have to be very careful not to get caught. I don’t see him being cautious enough. Silva pulls the upset win with a second round knockout.
Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover (155)
We heard enough about how great Phillipe Nover was during season eight of the Ultimate Fighter. Dana White even went as far as calling him “the next Anderson Silva”. Well, he’s not the next Anderson Silva. However, he could very well be the next Tommy Speer. Unless Nover has improved in ways I don’t see possible, he’ll be overmatched against the rugged Stout. Stout is a tough fighter that has a very polished stand-up game. He’ll be able to control Nover pretty convincingly on the way to a unanimous decision.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Justin Buchholz (155)
Stephens is an exciting fighter will be coming straight forward looking to land the big right hand. Buchholz won’t be hard to find either. The two lightweights will do their best heavyweight slugfest imitation. Due to the excitement, the fight will likely make television. In a battle of strikers, Stephens just has more power. That will be enough to get the nod. Stephens wins by second round knockout.
Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce (170)
Larson has a big opportunity to pick-up another UFC victory here. The problem isn’t that Mike Pierce doesn’t have ability. The problem is that Brock Larson is a very underrated fighter. This should be Larson’s last stop on the untelevised portion of UFC cards. Larson is a great ground fighter with an outstanding submission game. Larson has to be salivating at this match-up because it will come with the submission of the night bonus. Larson wins by second round submission.
Ryan Jensen vs. Steve Steinbeiss (185)
This is about as close to the bottom level of a fight the UFC could produce. That being said – both fighters are of similar skill levels, and that should lead to a competitive fight. Jensen and Steinbeiss have good all around skills. More importantly, they will be fighting for their UFC lives, and they know it. Jensen has more experience as he’s fought (and lost) to some top-flight competition like Demian Maia, Joey Villasenor, and Brock Larson. With only six professional fights, Steinbeiss is still relatively untested. He could probably use a few years to better learn his craft, and he’ll get that opportunity. Jensen wins by first round knockout.