By Norm Frauenheim

LAS VEGAS – There was no blood. There were no knockdowns. There was only Terence Crawford.

Crawford’s dance, as brilliant as it was defiant, continued Saturday, reaching a peak few others have achieved or even imagined with an upset of Canelo Alvarez in front of a crowd of 70,482 at Allegiant Stadium.

Crawford, booed when he entered the arena and booed for weeks after the fight was announced, did what he was always done in his historic path to undisputed title in three weight classes.

He did it with his feet, frustrating Canelo at almost every turn in winning a unanimous decision. It was 115-113 on two scorecards and 116-112 on the third. Two of the cards appeared to be closer than what the dominant Crawford did in moving across the ring, in and out of harm’s way and into history.

Canelo always seemed to be a step behind, a dance partner that couldn’t quite keep up with the master.

If there was a surprise, it was in Crawford’s footwork. He moved his feet with an agility not seen in almost a decade. For 12 rounds, the 37-year-old Crawford sustained the dance that earned him the undisputed super-middleweight title and a place among boxing’s all-time greats.

If he had been around in another time, the game would have Five Kings alongside the foursome of Ray Leonard, Marvin Hagler, Thomas Hearns and Roberto Duran.

In his hometown – Omaha, they simply call him Bud. On this night, however, boxing historians could have called him Sugar. He was that good, a former welterweight and junior-welter champion coming up two weight classes to take down Canelo, one of the most feared punchers in his day,

After it was all over, Crawford (42-0, 31 KOs) went to one knee and looked toward Allegiant Stadium’s ceiling as though he was looking to the heavens.

Thanks, he said

The thank-you was preceded by a confident Crawford who opened the fight in the southpaw style. His right hand led the attack and hinted at imminent alterations. But he never switched up, never went from left-handed to right-handed. But the threat was always there, forcing Canelo to be wary.

Above all, Crawford’s two-handed, ambidextrous threat  threw some hesitancy, if not outright  confusion into Canelo’s tactical plans.

Crawford right hand landed first, followed by a glancing left in the opening round. The crowd roared. Canelo remained cautious.

But in the second round, the popular Mexican hinted, perhaps, at what he had planned. He moved forward, almost stalking and in an almost straight line that led him to his target: Crawford’s midsection.

The body punch landed, forcing Crawford to step to one side and then another. In the third, it began to look as if Crawford was poised to pick up the pace.

In the fourth, he did, landing a couple of quick hands, first a right than a left. Momentum in the fourth, however, suddenly shifted when Canelo landed a straight right hand. Crawford looked at at him and smiled as if to say: You can’t catch me.

Over the next eight rounds, Canelo never could.

Callum Walsh dominates in one-sided decision over Vargas Jr.

Callum Walsh had too much power and too much accuracy.

In the end, he had too much of everything in overwhelming Fernando Vargas, Jr, who has a legendary name but none of his father’s resilient skillset. 

On the scorecards, Vargas (17-1, 13 KOs) never had a chance. The judges nearly scored the 10-round junior-middleweight fight as a shutout for Walsh (16-0, 11 KOs), an agile Irishman who knows his way around the ring.

 It was 99-91 on two cards and 100-90 on the third in the final fight before the Terence Crawford-Canelo Alvarez main event at Allegiant Stadium.

Mbilli, Martinez fight to a bruising draw

It was punishing, a fight full of momentum swings and exhausting exchanges of punches that landed everywhere and from all angles. It was hard to pick a winner.

In the end, nobody could..

Christian Mbilli-Lester Martinez was a draw. The good news is that the super-middleweight fight set the stage for a sequel and perhaps a great new rivalry. The only winner was the gathering crowd for the main event, Canelo Alvarez-versus-Terence Crawford. The early undercards didn’t offer much in terms of drama. Allegiant Arena eats were empty. Knockouts were few. Cheers were muted.

Then, Mbilli and Martinez stepped through the ropes.

In the early rounds, it looked as if Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) might win easily. He appeared to have an edge in the number and power of inside punches. In the middle rounds, however, Martinez. (19-01, 16 KOs), showed a stubborn streak and and his own brand of body shots and uppercuts. The Guatemalan wasn’t going anywhere. In the eighth and again ninth, it looked as if the body assault had robbed Mbilli of his energy. He looked fatigued.

In the final moments of the tenth and final round, however, Mbilli recovered, scoring repeatedly and often enough to perhaps ensure a draw. One judge scored it for him, 96-94. One scored it for Martinez, 97-93. On the third, it was a draw, 95-95

Can’t wait for the rematchThe punishing fight ended with exchanges of punches and moment

Mohammed Alakel wins unanimous decision

Saudi junior-lightweight Mohammed Alakel (5-0, 1 KO) employed faster hands and feet, scoring quickly and repeatedly for a unanimous decision  overTravis Crawford (7-4) a hard working fighter from (7-4-1) from Corpus Christi, TX in the first fight on the Netflix part of a card featuring Terence Crawford-versus-Canelo Alvarez at Allegiant Stadium Saturday. 

Brandon Adams wins rematch, scores decision over Bohachuk

Brandon Adams wore a gray wig to news conferences and weigh-ins. He shed the costume in the ring and answered questions about his age with a variety of punches.

Body shots, hooks and uppercuts were repeated answers to Serhii Bohachuk, who called the 36-year-old Adams — a Los Angeles middleweight — an old fighter.

Age is just a number, or at least it was for 10 rounds of punishing shots from multiple angles from Adams in a rematch victory Saturday at Allegiant Stadium over Bohachuk (26-3, 24 KOs) , a Ukrainian known for his power. 

In the end, Adams made the 30-year Bohachuk look old.  Adams, who scored an eighth-round TKO of Bohachuk in 2021, landed shots almost at will, winning a unanimous decision in the final fight before the Netflix portion of the Canelo-Crawford card.

Jermaine Franklin wins dull decision

It was unanimous.

On the cards.

And in the seats.

Jermaine Franklin Jr. won the decision. He also shared some of the contempt hurled at Ivan Dychko from a few fans scattered across Allegiant Stadium’s 65,000 seats Saturday on the Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford card in a heavyweight matinee Saturday.

Franklin (24-2), of Saginaw MI,  and Dychko (15-, 14 KOs), a two-time Olympic bronze medalist from Kazakhstan, clinched and clutched more than they punched through 10 forgettable rounds. By the fifth, the scattered crowd began to jeer. By the eighth, the boos began to echo through the empty arena.

By the end of the 10th, there were cheers.

Finally, it was over. 

Tsutsumi scores first-round stoppage

Reito Tsutsumi, a Japanese junior lightweight, didn’t need much time, mostly because Javier Martinez didn’t have much of anything at all.

Tsutsumi (3-0, 2 KOs) did it all within 2:18, walking down Martinez (7-3,4 KOs), hurting the Dallas fighter first with a succession of body shots and then finishing him with with straight punches that put Martinez on the canvas, a lonely figure in an empty building early on a card featuring Terence Crawford-versus-Canelo Alvarez fight.

Sultan Almohammed made a succsessful pro debut with a four-round unanimous decision over Martin Caraballo in a lightweight bout.

In round one, Almohammed dropped Caraballo with a right to the jaw.

Almohammed, 132.5 lbs of Jeddah, SA won by scores of 40-36 on all cardsa and is now 1-0. Caraballo, 133 lbs of Hollywood, FL is 0-1-1….Marc Abrams

Raiko Santana scored a mild upset by stopping Steven Nelson in the opening round of their 10-round light heavyweight bout.

Santana landed a hard right hand that hurt Nelson and a follow-up flurry forced the stoppage at 2:38.

Sanatana Of El Paso, TX is 13-4 with with seven knockouts. Nelson of Omaha, NEB is 20-2…...Marc Abrams

Potential Mexican star, Marco Verde stopped Sona Akale in round our of their six-roumd middleweight bout.

In round one, Verde landed a right hook that put Akale on the canvas.

In round four, Verde continued the assault and referee Mark Nelson stopped the bout at 1:11.

Verde, 158 lbs of Mazaltan, MEX is 3-0 with two knockouts. Akale, 158 lbs of St. Paul, MN is 9-4….Marc Abrams

By Norm Frauenheim

LAS VEGAS – First, there was Terence Crawford, dressed in a white top and a friendly smile.

Then, there was Canelo Alvarez, his eyes hidden by sunglasses darker than the undershirt he was wearing.

For about the next hour, both answered questions, talked philosophy, exchanged a few promises and threats.

There were a lot of roles on stage at T-Mobile Arena throughout a news conference Thursday, and both fighters played them well for a super-middleweight fight hard to predict, yet loaded with story lines and opinions

Sometime after opening bell at nearby Allegiant Stadium Saturday night, however, neither the opinions nor the stories will matter much in a ring near the 50-yard line of the NFL Stadium.

That’s when Canelo and Crawford will take matters into their own hands – hands as dangerous as any over the last decade of prize-fighting

Boxing newsers are always part of the show, of course. They set the stage for feints and perhaps a little bit of psychology.  Rhetorical jabs before the real ones.

Crawford and Canelo were there, each with an answer for whatever was asked in front of a crowd that has already made up its mind.

For Crawford, that means changing minds.

For Canelo, it means affirming what many already think in the remaining hours before the Netflix-streamed bout.

No matter what else was said Thursday, Crawford and Canelo were in the place they’ve been since their intriguing super-middleweight fight was announced several weeks ago.

Crawford is the underdog, defiant and yet seemingly happy to be in the role.

“They say I’ve fought nobody, they say I can’t sell, they say I’ve got no personality,’’ Crawford said with the defiant edge that has helped him forge a career with skeptics but no losses

For the last decade, Crawford has proven everybody wrong. It was clear Thursday that he intends to deliver some definitive say-so against Canelo, who has played the popular favorite throughout most of his career.

It was no surprise that Canelo was the crowd favorite at Thursday’s newser. He’s been a powerful favorite for about as long as Crawford has been doubted.

The news-conference crowd amplified its expectations Thursday. It is betting Canelo’s long reign as Mexico’s best fighter since Julio Cesar Chavez will continue.

Canelo said he doesn’t listen to cheers or criticism. Maybe not. Go ahead, he says, and debate about his place in Mexican history, which has for long started and ended with Julio.

“In the end, the people will decide,’’ Canelo said. “The numbers will be there or they won’t.’’

For now, however, the numbers are in the seats, there at least in terms of support for Canelo in his risky date as the bigger man in defense of his undisputed super-middleweight. 

Those numbers also add up to what might be an astonishing paycheck. There’s talk that Canelo will collect $100-million for fighting Crawford

Wrong, Saudi Prince and promoter Turki Alalshikh said Thursday.

“Our contract is for more than that,’’ said Alalshikh , who negotiated a three-fight deal in an 11^th hour offer that convinced Canelo to agree to the Crawford fight.

Like the purses perhaps, Crawford, it’s thought, will enter the ring smaller. He’s a former undisputed welterweight and junior-welter champion, who is jumping up the scale from junior-middleweight to fight Canelo.

The Canelo chants, like the expectations, were bigger Thursday, echoing throughout the building like an old lyric.

Crawford heard them and smiled. He’s been there. Defiance has been his lifestyle. He’s good at it, and he intends to be just as good for at least one more time.

But defiance isn’t a physical attribute. It’s not included on any tale-of-the -ape. There’s no way to measure it. Canelo’s experience and documented power at a heavier weight might just be too much for Crawford.

It’s easier to defy skeptics than it is a left counter. In the end, it might prove to be that stark, that simple, no matter what else was said Thursday. In boxing, some roles never change.

By Norm Frauenheim

Pressure is for tires, Hall of Fame pundit Charles Barkley once said famously.

A couple of weeks before opening bell, however, there’s more than just hot air evident in the anticipation building for the Canelo Alvarez-versus-Terence Crawford fight Sept. 13 in front of an expected football-sized crowd at Las Vegas Allegiant Stadium.

Alongside big money, lots of legacy is at stake for fighters already wealthy, yet still pursuing proof of what they’ve done and who they’ve become.

Legacy, of course, is overused enough to be meaningless these days. Just about everybody has one. But the size and significance of Canelo-Crawford puts a spotlight on careers that will meet in a collision that promises to provide a real answer.

Who’s the best of their generation? That’s the simple question. Crawford is 37; Canelo is 35. They come from different weight classes, are from different places, are motivated by different opinions and answer to different fan bases.

Over the years, however, they have emerged as rivals despite that difference in weight, which ironically might be what determines the answer.

But the weight was close enough to be negotiable. Only the date, place and purse remained. Where better than in a four-sided ring where two fighters will seek to be the definitive best of an era they defined? It doesn’t happen that often.

Forget those historical parallels, which have often turned boxing into little more than an exasperating video game.

To wit: How would Oleksandr Usyk, the best heavyweight of this era, have done against Muhammad Ali? Okay, it’s a fun argument, but still mere fantasy. There’s no answer. Never will be. But one is possible in Canelo-Crawford. It’s what makes Canelo-Crawford special. It’s not virtual reality. It’s blood-and-guts real, rare in this day and perhaps in any other.

That’s where the pressure starts. It’ll be there, building throughout next week, fight week, weigh-in, opening bell and post-fight conversation.

For now, it also explains all of the talk preceding the bout between Crawford, an all-time great at welterweight who is coming up from junior-middleweight and jumping two divisions to fight Canelo, the greatest super-middleweight in history.

The biggest risk — in the ring, at least — appears to be in Crawford’s corner, simply because he’s never taken, much less endured, a punch in a sanctioned bout from a true 168-pound fighter.

How will Crawford react when Canelo lands the power that is his trademark? There’s no answer until it lands. That uncertainty sums up the odds. Since the fight was announced, they’ve never changed. Canelo was a slight favorite then. He’s a slight favorite now.

It’s a reflection of an old, reliable guide in a game that has seen it all. To wit: In a fight between two good fighters, always bet on the bigger one.

The documented difference in weight might force Crawford to take a chance. If he hopes to win, he’ll have to step into Canelo’s dangerous wheelhouse at some point. By any definition, that’s a huge risk.

Yet, Crawford might be the personification of what, who Barkley was talking about with his dismissive take on pressure.

Crawford has been known for his cool, calculating demeanor throughout his reign as a four-division champion, including undisputed at 140 pounds (junior-welterweight) and 147 (welter). Ringside commentators like to say Crawford has the It factor. It is in his composure. It is overall poise

In Boxing Speak, Crawford is also known for another intangible called Ring IQ. There’s no exam to measure that, other than his unbeaten record. Let’s just say he knows what he’s doing with a versatile, two-handed style that includes unerring anticipation and a keen predatory instinct. If there’s a weakness, he’ll find it.

And attack it.

If there’s a weakness in Canelo, it appears to be his endurance, especially in the later rounds against fighters known for agile footwork. Crawford’s middleaged feet don’t move at the rate they did a decade ago.

But Canelo’s scorecard loss in May 2022 to light-heavyweight Dmitrii Bivol – perhaps mandatory viewing in Crawford’s video library – showed what’s possible in the late rounds. Canelo gets tired.

If that fatigue factor persists, there’s an opportunity for Crawford if he can withstand – survive – Canelo’s power through the first six to eight rounds. That’s an IF, as big as it is decisive.

Bivol threw punches at varying angles as he moved in-and-out of harm’s way in the late rounds of a decision over Canelo. Canelo was slow to react, slower to recognize, the angles on Bivol’s punches.

Angles are one of Crawford’s unequalled specialties, an aspect augmented by his ability to switch hit. The ambi-dextrous Crawford can fight left-handed, right-handed and makes the switch from one to the other and back in quicksilver fashion.

A tired Canelo might not see what’s coming. But Crawford, who will have to prove he can endure early power shots to the body and upper arms, might have to battle through some early rocky moments just to take the fight into that late stage when Canelo has proven to be vulnerable.

Pick here: Crawford will, getting up from an early knockdown to win a narrow decision.

Las Vegas (August 20, 2025) — Boxing promotional powerhouse Top Rank has confirmed that they will appear at the Eighth Annual Box Fan Expo on Saturday, September 13, 2025, at the Las Vegas Convention Center from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. The Expo will also coincide with the mega fight between Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford, which will take place later that evening at Allegiant Stadium.

Top Rank and the Top Rank Knockouts ring card girls will hold a Meet & Greet with autographs and photos from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. during the fan event held over Mexican Independence Day weekend.

Tickets to the Box Fan Expo are available online at: 

https://bit.ly/BOXFANEXPO2025

Top Rank and The Knockouts are making their second appearance at this year’s Expo. They will be taking photos with boxing fans and selling merchandise at their booth.

About Top Rank

Innovation has been the standard at Top Rank since it was established in 1973 by Hall of Fame promoter Bob Arum. The boxing industry’s leading promotional company, Top Rank has shaped, developed, and promoted the careers of top international pay-per-view superstars and Hall of Famers, including Muhammad Ali, Marvelous Marvin Hagler, Thomas Hearns, Roberto Duran, George Foreman, Sugar Ray Leonard, Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Manny Pacquiao, Floyd Mayweather Jr., Vasiliy Lomachenko and Tyson Fury.

About Box Fan Expo

Box Fan Expo is the ultimate boxing fan experience event, which allows fans to meet the stars of boxing that represent the past, present and future of the sport. With hosted autograph signings, meet-and-greets with current and former boxing world champions, limited edition merchandise for sale, giveaways and more, this is the ultimate event for fans of the sport.

Past boxing stars that have participated include: Floyd Mayweather, Mike Tyson, Roberto Duran, Lennox Lewis, Julio Cesar Chavez, Roy Jones Jr., Juan Manuel Marquez, Sugar Ray Leonard, Tommy Hearns, Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales, David Benavidez, Teofimo Lopez, Andre Ward, Ryan Garcia, Claressa Shields, Fernando Vargas, Edgar Berlanga, Oscar Valdez, Marcos Maidana, Devin Haney, Mikey Garcia, Errol Spence Jr, Rolando Romero, Sergio Martinez, Tim Bradley, Jose Ramirez, Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman, Danny Garcia, Deontay Wilder, Amir Khan, Abner Mares, James Toney, Jessie Vargas, Floyd Mayweather sr., Vinny Paz, Mia St. John, Franchón Crews-Dezurn, Seniesa Estrada, Jorge Linares, Leo Santa Cruz, Chiquita Gonzalez, Badou Jack, Nico Ali Walsh, Terry Norris, Riddick Bowe, Earnie Shavers, Michael & Leon Spinks, Brandon Rios, Anthony Dirrell, Danny Jacobs and many more…

Exhibitors include boxing promoters, gear, apparel, equipment, energy drinks, supplement products, broadcasting media, sanctioning bodies, and other companies who showcase their brand to fans and the boxing industry as a whole.

Throughout the next few weeks leading up to the Event, there will be weekly updates on the many stars that will commit their appearance at the Boxing Expo.

Tickets to the Box Fan Expo are available at Eventbrite:

https://bit.ly/BOXFANEXPO2025

To request information on exhibiting and sponsorship at the Expo:

For media credentials:

 Contact us:

 Telephone number: (702) 997-1927 or (514) 572-7222

 For any inquiries please email: boxfanexpo@gmail.com

 More information on Box Fan Expo visit: http://www.boxfanexpo.com

 Follow Box Fan Expo on Twitter and Instagram at: @BoxFanExpo

 Follow Box Fan Expo on Facebook at: https://www.facebook.com/BoxFanExpo

By Norm Frauenheim

Netflix and Las Vegas’ Allegiant Stadium are sure signs that Canelo Alvarez-versus-Terence Crawford is transforming itself into an event, bigger than just boxing.

Netflix’s subscriber base, 301 million and counting, alongside the NFL brand attached to the Raiders’ home field is a powerful marketing combo, a chance perhaps to bring back some of that so-called cross-over crowd that continued to exit the boxing audience with ESPN’s final card last week.

With the Sept. 13 opening bell still six weeks away, anticipation for Crawford-Canelo has already been building for weeks. Unlike the sad spectacle of watching Jake Paul against aging Mike Tyson in Netflix’s last bit of boxing theater inside the Dallas Cowboys home in November, Crawford-Canelo is genuine.

At least, it can be.

That, of course, is the mandatory caveat, always there, attached to a sport as risky as it is resilient. Buyer beware. Nevertheless, Canelo and Crawford represent a rare opportunity to unify fans, hard core and casual.

It doesn’t happen often enough in any era, even a good one. But here we are, Crawford and Canelo, two of the best fighters from the same generation from different weight classes meeting in a fight that could determine the best of a passing era.

Some promoter somewhere will no doubt dust off the cliched label and call this one another fight to save boxing. It’s not, of course. Boxing has always been beyond saving, anyway. Still, this one has a chance to be a keeper

For Crawford, it’s a chance to prove he was as good a welterweight as any in any era, including the one defined by Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns and Roberto Duran.

For Canelo, it’s a chance to deliver the proof to what he’s been saying all along. History’s only undisputed super-middleweight champion has long argued he’s the best. Period. A definitive victory over Crawford would be the proof and perhaps the piece that would allow him to say he’s the best in Mexican history, better than even the iconic Julio Cesar Chavez.

The stakes, like the purses, are enormous, heightened by the fighters’ ages. Crawford is 37. Fifteen days after the fight, he’ll be 38. Canelo celebrated a birthday on July 18. He’s 35. Both are leaving their primes. This is a chance for each to recapture the best of what made them great.

By now, their respective advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed to the point of redundancy. On the scale, the bigger, heavy-legged Canelo has all the advantages. He also more to lose.

Crawford, who is moving up two weight classes after winning at junior-middle more than a year ago, is quicker with a quicksilver ability to switch from right to left and back. Yet, he’s at a bigger risk of getting knocked out, a danger and perhaps a final punctuation to a Hall of Fame reign that could leave some doubts about his pursuit of a genuine legacy.

All and more are the backdrop to expectations that might be difficult – perhaps impossible – to fulfill. But that’s why Netflix will be there in a 65,000-seat stadium. It’s not exactly winner-take-all, but it has that kind of feel to it. Appropriately, it’s also a fight that could go a couple of ways.

The best and worst examples in modern history:

·    Manny Pacquiao’s star-making stoppage of Oscar De La Hoya in December 2008 at Las Vegas’ MGM Grand.

·    Errol Spence Jr.’s unanimous decision over Mikey Garcia March 16, 2019 at the Cowboy’s A&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.

Both were fights between the best in different weight classes. In each, the lighter fighter was jumping two divisions — Pacquiao from lightweight to welterweight to face De La Hoya, who dropped down from 154 pounds to 147 and Garcia from lightweight to welter against Spence.

Pacquiao-De La Hoya was the keeper. It ended with De La Hoya, beaten and finished on the stool at the start of the ninth. De La Hoya, a six-division champion, retired and Pacquiao, an eight-division champion went on to stardom still evident. At 46-years-old, he still filled the MGM Grand with fans chanting Manny in a controversial majority draw with Mario Barrios last month.

Spence-Garcia was the dud. Garcia was known for his footwork and versatile skillset. But his brother, trainer Robert Garcia, warned him about moving up two weights against the then-emerging Spence, who seven months later was badly hurt in a scary auto accident. Garcia should have listened to his brother. Spence dominated in every conceivable way, winning on scorecards – 120-108, 120-107, 120-108 — that reflected a bout best forgotten.

Keeper or dud? The only sure thing about Canelo-Crawford is that it’ll be an event. Boxing could use one. Could use a keeper, too.

NOTES

It was evident that Oscar Valdez Jr. (323, 24 KOs) had decided to fight on when it was disclosed last month that he was leaving trainer Eddy Reynoso and re-joining Manny Robles, his first pro trainer.

His first step back into the ring after a punishing rematch loss to Emanuel Navarrete in Phoenix in December is planned for Sept. 6, according to Boxing Scene.

However, no opponent or site has been reported. The expectation is that Valdez, 34, will make his comeback in Mexico. The two-time Mexican Olympian lives in Hermosillo. He grew up in Nogales, a border town south of Tucson, where he has family. He also went to school in Tucson, where he has always been a good draw.

By Norm Frauenheim

Date and place remain uncertain, but exploding interest in Canelo Alvarez-versus-Terence Crawford six months before a projected opening bell is already evident in the noisy debate on social media and shifting numbers in the betting line. 

The social-media noise will continue, ad nauseam. But it’s the betting line, an early poll of sorts, that is showing a shift of public opinion toward Canelo. 

Canelo opened as a slight favorite, minus-190. But the odds, the dollars, are moving toward Canelo during the weeks since an 11th-hour deal was struck with Saudi Prince and promoter Turki Alalshikh on Feb. 7. 

This week Canelo is at minus-230. Translated, that means there’s a 66-percent chance he wins a fight as intriguing as any for a bout expected to happen in September in either Las Vegas or Los Angeles. 

The early odds figure to change more, especially during the first Saturday in May when Canelo is expected to reunify the super-middleweight title against International Boxing Federation belt-holder William Scull, a Cuban living in Germany, in a perceived tune-up in Riyadh. 

Canelo figures to win easily, but how easily will be a key factor going into the fight against Crawford, a four-division champion and an all-time welterweight great who is moving up two weight classes.

Increasingly, there’s social-media talk that the smaller, more skillful Crawford can beat Canelo. But the shifting odds say something else. There’s an old line: In a fight between two good fighters, bet on the bigger guy. For now, that’s Canelo. 

According to the latest odds update, Crawford has a 33 percent chance at springing one of the biggest upsets since Manny Pacquiao, then a lightweight champion, jumped to welterweight and scored an eighth-round stoppage of Oscar De La Hoya in December 2008.

Pacquiao weighed in at 142 pounds. De La Hoya, who came down from junior middleweight, was at 145 at the official weigh-in. It looked as if De La Hoya had weakened himself in the battle to make weight. Pacquiao overwhelmed De La Hoya late in the eighth, forcing him to quit before the start of the ninth.

Canelo, already known to tire in the later rounds, won’t have to weaken himself on the scale. According to the agreement, he’ll be at his customary weight, 168 pounds at the weigh-in the day before opening bell. 

It’s up to Crawford, who fought and won a belt at junior-middle (154) in his last bout, to add pounds. The question is how that will affect Crawford, who unlike Canelo does not have a fight scheduled before the projected September bout.

If Crawford can carry the additional weight without draining his endurance or eroding the dynamic resilience in his varied skillset, he’s got a real chance. Canelo has never faced anybody with Crawford’s quicksilver ability to adjust, including a seamless move from orthodox to southpaw and back. 

At 37 — he’ll be 38 on Sept 28, Crawford’s feet might not move with the agility and speed that they did when he was at lightweight and junior-welter. 

If, however, Crawford withstands Canelo’s early power, carries the weight and carries himself into the later rounds, there’s a chance he catches a tiring Canelo with counters from angles the powerful Mexican has yet to see.

On the scale of intangibles, the edge goes to Crawford. There’s charisma in his defiance. Motivation, too. Underdog will be the perfect fit for Crawford in his pursuit of big money and genuine legacy. 

It’s not as if Crawford is coming into what might be his last fight seeking a gigantic payout against a Jake Paul or a Conor McGregor. He’s taking on perhaps the biggest challenge possible against a bigger man, Canelo, who goes into the fight more than just favored.

Canelo is supposed to win. There’s pressure in that role, but it’s one Canelo understands better than any fighter in his generation. 

He’s learned how to counter it and how to use it throughout the years since a milestone scorecard loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in September 2013. If social media and shifting odds are any indication, that pressure is just beginning to build.

Best bet:

It’s going to be a hell of a fight.

By Norm Frauenheim

Surprise, surprise, the Canelo Álvarez-Terence Crawford fight was off. Then, faster than flipping a light switch, it was back on. For the nut jobs gathered in the murky bottom of the social-media cesspool, that was the first sign of a lot more off and on. Sure enough, that’s what followed within a few hours Thursday. Canelo-Jake Paul was on, then suddenly off, in a dizzy sequence of dueling reports, all hard to follow in a sport known more for feints than facts.

Welcome to boxing, once called the red-light district of sports.  Buyer beware, which these days means don’t believe anything you read or hear because it’s about to change.

It all started late Wednesday with a Canelo-Crawford report from The Ring. Suddenly, a fight rumored for about a year and reportedly a done deal for September was suddenly off. Why? Fill in the blanks.

Immediately after news that — for “now” — the reported Canelo-Crawford fight in September on the Las Vegas Raiders home field is off, there were reports that Canelo would fight Jake Paul, who issued a statement Thursday evening, saying “when there is something to announce, we will announce it.’’

Turns out, there was nothing to announce. Instead, there was boxing’s new money man, Saudi Prince Turki Alalshikh, on social media, saying — somewhat cryptically — that Canelo had a four-fight deal for the Riyadh Season. It’s supposed to start on the first weekend in May, but apparently Paul will not be included, despite multiple reports to the contrary earlier in the day.  Meanwhile, The Ring, which Alalshikh recently bought, posted that Canelo-Paul was off. Please, pass the dramamine. It’s hard to know when this messy merry-go-round stops.

Above all, it suggests what everybody already knows. To wit: Boxing doesn’t know what it’s doing. Never has. The difference this week is the chaos. There’s more of that than ever. The best bet — perhaps the only one — is that the chaos will continue, leaving fans and media free to speculate wildly about what to believe and who to mock, what to rip and who to insult.

The best guess in this corner is that an untold amount of money was offered in some furious wheeling-and-dealing between the offs and ons, all in an 11th-hour effort to convince Canelo that he was better off with the Saudis than with a reported bout against Jake Paul. 

The Paul reports were credible, mostly because they made sense.

Canelo, the wealthiest boxer on Forbes’ annual list of the world’s richest athletes, has been more businessman than boxer over the last couple of years. He has employed the risk-reward formula he inherited from Floyd Mayweather Jr., who reportedly became a billionaire boxer by adhering to the ratio.

Paul has been calling out Canelo for years. As an aside, he has never called out David Benavidez, who also had been pursuing Canelo for years before his solid victory at light-heavyweight Saturday over David Morrell. Paul fought MMA star Anderson Silva in a boxing match two-plus years ago in Glendale AZ, just a few blocks from Phoenix streets where Benavidez grew up. 

“You call out Canelo, why not Benavidez?’’ I asked him at the formal news conference.

“I’m not ready for that,’’ Paul said.

He’s not. 

Not then. 

Especially not now.

Canelo, super-middleweight champ and still ranked in the middle of most pound-for-pound ratings, knows that, of course. He also knows that Crawford, an all-time welterweight great still among the top three in the pound-for-pound debate and now 1-0 at junior-middle, is a bigger risk than Paul ever could be. 

Like Benavidez, Paul has never called out Crawford either. 

The risk in either is not worth the reward.

But Paul, whose persona includes an edgy notoriety, has a social-media following that only Gallup can count. His drawing power is also undisputed. A Netflix audience for Paul’s sad spectacle against aging and ailing Mike Tyson on Nov. 15 was reported to peak at 65 million. The live crowd at AT&T Stadium in Arlington TX was announced at 72,300. Factor in all of that and it looked to be a no-brainer. 

The only downside would be the criticism Canelo would inevitably hear if he fought Paul, a novice boxer, instead of the emerging Benavidez or the feared Crawford, who is promoted by Alalshikh.  But the Saudi offer apparently was big, bigger than even the money Canelo might have made in a May date against Paul.

Apparently, the Saudi deal also restores plans for a Crawford fight against Canelo in September. Crawford tweeted Thursday night that he would wait on Canelo to fight a perceived tuneup in May. Super-middleweight belt-holder William Scull, a Cuban living in Germany, Jermall Charlo and Bruno Surface — who knocked out Jaime Munguia in a huge upset — are possibilities for the May date.

But there’s still a caveat. As of late Thursday, there was still no word — yes or no — from Canelo, the reigning Face of the Game. Only his final say-so can stop the chaos, or maybe just ignite a lot more of it.