By Norm Frauenheim –
History has always motivated Canelo Alvarez. He fights to make some. Now, it looks as if he’s fighting not to become some.
The 33-year-old Mexican, the pay-per-view star of his generation, enters the ring for the first bout in another rich deal in three weeks amid uncertainty about his career. What’s left?
Against Jermell Charlo on September 30 at Las Vegas T-Mobile Arena in a Showtime pay-per-view bout, the task is to reverse a decline that isn’t exactly a secret anymore. His fans have seen it. Those close to him talk about it. Only he can reverse it.
But skepticism is everywhere, enough of it to wonder whether Charlo can spring an upset that would raise inevitable questions about Canelo’s future.
Five years ago, Charlo wouldn’t have been perceived as a threat. The junior-middleweight, 154-pound champion is jumping up a couple of weight classes to face Canelo, who has all of the relevant belts at 168-pounds. Charlo has been idle for more than a year. His last fight was a stoppage of Brian Castano in May 2022. He’s spent his career at junior-middle.
Those are documented items on a resume that should make Canelo the overwhelming favorite. For now, they are still enough to persuade the betting public. When news of the fight was disclosed in July, most betting services had Canelo at minus-280, meaning there was a 69.7-percent chance of a Canelo victory.
A couple of months later, Canelo is at minus-310, meaning his chances at winning have improved to 75.2 percent.
Canelo has fought and won at heavier weights, including a defining late-round stoppage of once-feared Sergey Kovalev in 2019. He’s busier.
Yet, the uncertainty persists. It was there in a virtual news conference Wednesday with prominent trainers Ronnie Shields, Bob Santos, Calvin Ford and Robert Garcia, who like everybody else witnessed Canelo struggle through his last three fights.
There was the scorecard loss to light-heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol, also in May 2022. A dull decision in a long-awaited third fight over Gennadiy Golovkin followed. Then, there was another forgettable decision over journeyman John Ryder.
When asked for a pick, there was a split decision from the trainers.
Shields picked Charlo. “I think, Jermell wins by split decision,’’ said Shields, his former trainer, who still trains his twin brother, Jermall.
Santos, the 2022 Ring Magazine’s Trainer of the Year, leans toward Canelo “55-45” in a fight he says will end in a KO.
Ford, Gervonta Davis’ trainer, didn’t pick a winner. Like Santos, however, he foresees a knockout. “Somebody is going to sleep,” Ford said. “I don’t know which one, but someone is going to sleep.”
Garcia, whose resume also includes Trainer of the Year, picks Canelo, yet foresees different scenarios in which either can win. “This is a tough one to pick,’’ Garcia said. “If Canelo wins by knockout, I think it’s under eight rounds. Late rounds is where Charlo could actually stop Canelo. If it goes the distance, I think Canelo edges a decision.”
There’s consensus about only one thing: Charlo has a chance, mostly because nobody knows whether Canelo’s last three fights are an aberration or evidence of an irreversible decline.
A key to the younger Canelo’s emergence was a willingness to learn from defeat. He was a 23-year-old student when he was schooled by then 36-year-old Floyd Mayweather.
A decade later, there are questions about whether a long career has eroded Canelo’s physical capacity to learn and rebound from Bivol, only his second loss in 63 fights.
In an effort to resurrect the fighter who was there against Kovalev, Canelo has altered his preparation. He moved his training camp to the mountains near Reno. He’s working at altitude, a sign that he hopes to eliminate fatigue that was evident late in each of his last three fights.
“It’s gonna be one of those challenges that Canelo will need to be in top shape for,’’ Garcia said. “The size won’t matter. I’m pretty sure when it comes to fight night, they’ll be around the same weight. It’s gonna be very competitive and I can’t wait.
“Everyone says that Canelo is one of the hardest working fighters they’ve ever seen. But Canelo hasn’t looked that good his last couple of fights. That is a reason to give Charlo a really good chance. Charlo is not gonna hold back.
“You can train to the best of your abilities, but sometimes your body just doesn’t respond as well. Canelo may be training as hard as ever, but he’s had 18 years as a professional fighter.
“I still pick him to win the fight, but I don’t think it’s gonna be easy.’’
History never is.
